After peaking in 2016 at $205 billion, and despite the number of pay-TV subscribers projected to rise by 9% over the next five years, global pay-TV revenues are set to fall by 11% to $183 billion by 2023, says a report from Digital TV Research.
The Global Pay-TV Revenue Forecasts report says that the key driver for the decline in revenues per subscriber is due to more homes converting to bundles. It estimates that eight of the top ten countries will lose pay-TV revenues between 2017 and 2023, while revenues will decline in 47 of the 138 countries covered in the report between 2017 and 2023. Twelve countries are set to lose more than 10% of their revenues leading to a total global decline of $19 billion.
Looking at specific territories, Digital TV Research found that US pay-TV revenues peaked in 2015, at $102 billion and forecasts a $22 billion decline between 2017 and 2023 to take its total down to $75 billion. By contrast, China will gain nearly $1 billion in pay-TV revenues between 2017 and 2023 to bring its total to $13 billion while India will provide the largest increase in pay-TV revenues at $1.6 billion. Revenues will more than double for six countries between 2017 and 2023. Eight of the top ten fast-growth nations by percentage increase will be in Africa.
On platforms, Digital TV Research believes that satellite TV and digital cable TV revenues will continue to be broadly similar. Revenues for the former were $83 billion in 2017; falling to $77 billion by 2023 and digital cable TV is set to supply $76 billion in 2023; down from $85 billion in 2023. The Global Pay-TV Revenue Forecasts report rates IPTV as the pay-TV revenue winner, with revenues increasing from $25 billion in 2017 to $27 billion in 2023.